Unless one political party or pre-election alliance wins an absolute majority of the seats in the legislature, a new government is formed only after a bargaining process between the political parties in the post-election phase. Political parties that have not formed pre-election alliances negotiate to form coalitions in order to ensure that the government is supported by a majority of the legislators. During the coalition talks, the parties negotiate about cabinet seats, portfolio allocation, and a common policy programme.
It is not always predictable how the outcome of the elections and the allocation of seats in the new legislature will affect the formation of a government. Which political parties aspire to form the government, what alliances they can form with other parties and independent candidates, and how successful they are in the negotiations will determine the shape of the new government.
Likelihood of forming government together
- The smaller the ideological distance between political parties, the more likely it is that they will form a coalition government together. They are more likely to be able to agree on policy decisions, and their voters are more likely to accept the coalition.
- The political party occupying a core position in the policy space is able to form a coalition with more parties than any other political party. The party holding the core position has the highest bargaining power of all other actors, because it has the most alternatives to form coalitions with other parties and is therefore most likely to be part of the final government. This can lead to situations where a very small political party can have a very good bargaining situation.
- If political parties at one end of the political spectrum have large ideological differences between them, it will be more difficult for them to form government together. This also means that minority governments are more likely to succeed the larger the ideological divisions are within the opposition they are facing.
These factors are considered the most relevant in government formation:
- The major party in the legislature is most likely a part of the new government, even if it does not have an absolute majority on its own. It is also often the largest party that nominates the Prime Minister.
- Coalitions need support from a majority of the legislators, but parties forming the coalition also want as few competitors as possible for the government posts. The most likely type of coalition to form is therefore a minimal winning coalition where parties try to gain support from as many legislators as possible while involving as few political parties as possible.
- Negotiation processes often lead to situations where the political parties that in the end form the government decide to share the government positions (ministers, etc.) proportionally according to seats gained in the legislature. (Gamson 1961).
- In contrast to the above assumption, the formateur of the government (usually the party that has received the most votes/seats) would act as the agenda-setter and as the leader in the coalition talks and would use its power to achieve the greatest payoffs.
- Incumbency may have a positive effect on a party’s participation in the formation of a new government. It is more likely for the governing party to re-form government than for a new political party or coalition to take its place, even if the votes for the two sides are equal. This is said to be especially true for cases when the party of the incumbent prime minister obtains most of the seats in the legislature.
Moreover, they may be other determinants that in particular guide political parties in the government formation talks and the bargaining process.
- Pre-electoral announcements like pre-electoral coalitions may have a great influence on the formation of the government: If a party publicly states that it intends to form a coalition with another party in case of winning the majority of seats, the likelihood that this coalition will form government is much higher than otherwise
- Some political parties tend to aim to hold a particular ministry position, such as socialist parties bargaining for the ministry for labour and social affairs, and green parties preferring the ministry for environmental issues.
- Individual career objectives of important party members or leaders have to be taken into account.
- Mixed motives are most likely to dominate coalition formation processes in practice: neither pure office-seeking nor pure ideological policy-pursuing motives lead parties to form (part of) a government.
